Exports of Italian companies are expected to grow for the next two years, mainly thanks to the boost of environmental goods and new technologies.
According to the 2023 Export Report by SACE, carried out by processing Istat (Italian National Institute of Statistics) and Oxford Economics data, 2023 will be a year of weak but positive macroeconomic prospects, followed by a more dynamic 2024.
Italian exports of goods in 2023 will grow by 6.8% with a lively dynamic, albeit at a physiologically lower pace compared to the last two years, and will exceed 660 billion euros. The pace will remain strong in 2024 at +4.6% and then settle at +3.8% in the following two years.
Growth is increasingly robust in markets such as the Gulf countries, China and India, Thailand and Vietnam, but also Mexico and Brazil. They are countries that are embarking on a path of energy transition and digital transformation, not forgetting the United States and Croatia, "new entry" of the Eurozone and gateway to the markets of the Balkan region.
The analysis underlines that the energy transition and the digital revolution are emerging more and more clearly as phenomena destined to profoundly affect the ability of companies to control foreign markets.
For the first time, the Export Report also analyses the international flows of environmental goods, in which goods related to environmental protection and those adapted to be more environmentally friendly or "cleaner “such as biofuels, mercury-free batteries as well as hybrid and electric cars. The Italian export of environmental goods is expected to grow by 9.3% in 2023 and next year by 9.7%, accelerating then to about 14% per year on average in 2025-26.
Investment in new technologies such as 4.0 and artificial intelligence is strong, but training and new business models are also needed: companies that invest in 4.0 and innovate their business model are about three times more likely to export than companies that invest without changing their model.